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Peace and Prosperity

Libya Update: ISIS Moving in?


ISIS and its head Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi have publicly declared that Libya will be its next home now that ISIS is being driven out Syria and Iraq.

It was reported recently that a former CIA Station Chief, one Daniel Hoffman, a distinguished career intelligence officer who served in the past in Russia, Iraq, and Pakistan, hypothesized ISIS’s regrouping strategy.

Hoffman specifically makes one particular point which many have been predicting for months: Essentially that ISIS needs a new base of operations following its loss of Raqaa and it has selected two potential sites in Libya.

Hoffman specifically stated that the Head of ISIS, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi has decided that ISIS’s future is to be based out of Libya, and that he himself should physically be there to provide the morale and psychological support for their dream of a Caliphate.

The new political religious country which they wish to name "The Islamic State" to be made up from amongst the countries they have destroyed and pillaged.

ISIS moving its base of operations to Libya would be a game changer for the War on Terror and force a united Europe to collectively establish a definitive policy for Libya, something that has not existed before.

As to be expected, little has appeared in the "fake" mainstream media of the increased presence of ISIS in Libya particularly in two places, Sirte and Sabratha.

The reports that do appear attribute these recent Libyan skirmishes to elements paid, what can only be described as bribes, by the Italian Government to local Sabratha militias allegedly fighting "people smugglers" to stop the flow of migrants particularly from Zuwara, via Sabratha, to Italy.

An old mafia trick was to break someone's shop window then visit the owner in the morning saying they fix broken windows!

Nevertheless it's a strategy Italy is committed to as immigrants effect them more than any other nearby country.

However what the mainstream media fail to write about when describing the Italian strategy is that it has actually encouraged ISIS presence in Sabratha and Zawia as they are running short of sources of finance and what is better than European money?

The Catch-22 effect of the Italians bribing militias in Sabratha has been like spreading honey to attract bees. ISIS fighters want their share. It's that simple.

This is part of the reason thousands of ISIS fighters have recently arrived in Libya these past weeks from Iraq and Syria, where they have had to flee anyway.

The other important reason for ISIS to move to Libya is to try and capture "the oil crescent" currently controlled by Field Marshall Haftar's Libyan National Army (the LNA).

Sirte puts them within striking distance of the oil terminals of the crescent, ISIS have plans to start launching attacks on Tunisia and later Algeria and Morocco from Sabratha to further destabilize the rest of that part of North Africa.

Tunisians nationals make up more than 50 percent of all ISIS fighters.

Returning Tunisian ISIS fighters intend to bring turmoil to their country of origin as well as to Libya, so they need a base to operate from to do this.

What is described above is believed to be the new ISIS short and medium term strategy.

Italy and France have very publicly voiced their disagreements with each other over each's tactics in Libya.

Unconfirmed reports also have suggested that the Italians appealed to Haftar in the short term to send Zintani based troops loyal to him to help destroy ISIS in the Sabratha region and then to move on and take Zawia itself and help stop the immigrants no doubt offering him financial incentives also.

Haftar's LNA successfully took both Sabratha and Zawia last week.

A political consequence has emerged to these activities producing new politics for Libyans on the ground in the form of recent rallys and demonstrations of pro-Gaddafites, who now openly say the solution for Libya is the son of the late Colonel, Saif al Islam Gaddafi.

So the story continues to evolve from a counter intelligence perspective and a political one within Libya.

America seems to have taken its eye off the ball in Libya but with these events, the US may well encourage the EU rather than the UN to come up with a plan, something after six years of trying, the UN has yet to do.

Haftar said yesterday "No indications that the ongoing dialogue is the only way to resolve the crisis."
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