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COVID-19 Projection Models Are Proving to Be Unreliable

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To describe as stunning the collapse of a key model the government has used to alarm the nation about the catastrophic threat of the coronavirus would not do this development justice.

In a space of just six days starting April 2, two revisions (on April 5 and 8) have utterly discredited the model produced by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. I wrote about the IHME’s modeling at National Review on Monday, the day after the first revision — which was dramatic, but pales in comparison to Wednesday’s reassessment. This was not immediately apparent because the latest revision (April 8) did not include a side-by-side comparison, as did the April 5 revision. Perusal of the new data, however, is staggering, as is what it says about government predictions we were hearing just days ago about the likelihood of 100,000 deaths, with as many as 240,000 a real possibility.

As I noted in my last post on this subject, by April 5, the projection of likely deaths had plunged 12 percent in just three days, 93,531 to 81,766. Understand, this projection is drawn from a range; on April 2, IHME was telling us cumulative COVID-19 deaths could reach as high as approximately 178,000. The upper range was also reduced on April 5 to about 136,000.

On April 8, the projected cumulative deaths were slashed to 60,145 (with the upper range again cut, to about 126,000). That is, in less than a week, the model proved to be off by more than 33 percent.
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More herd immunity, less herd mentality

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Our delayed response to COVID-19 has been rash and driven by fear, not data. This may end up costing us double because health depends on many factors. As we learned in the aftermath of the 2008 market crash, economic shocks have a direct impact on public health. The United States experienced a historical decline in life expectancy due to an epidemic of deaths of despair. In a matter of months, people lost their jobs, lifetime savings, and their homes. A strikingly similar situation is happening now.
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F.A. Hayek on Gates, Fauci, and All Central Planners Like Them

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One striking characteristic of the two most important contributors to the creation of Soviet America created by the hysterical panic over the latest cold virus — Bill Gates and Anthony Fauci — is their nonchalant, devil-may-care attitude toward the tens of millions of Americans whose jobs and paychecks have been eliminated, their businesses ruined and gone forever, their savings decimated, and their imprisonment under mass house arrest, watched over by snotty, arrogant, local cops who suffer disproportionately from little-man syndrome. 

Gates, Fauci, the “public health establishment,” and the barking chorus professional liars in the “media” went berserk when President Trump stated the obvious — that life is full of tradeoffs, and that an economic depression may well cause more death and destruction of life than any cold virus can. We don’t want “the cure to be worse than the disease,” he said.

The great Nobel prize-winning Austrian School of Economics economist F.A. Hayek put his finger on the government-planning mentality of people like Gates and Fauci in his 1944 book,The Road to Serfdom, one of the most influential books of the twentieth century. On page 55 Hayek wrote...
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Fauci's Coronavirus Numbers Collapse - Why Still Listen To Him?

Anthony Fauci has dominated the headlines for weeks with his doom and gloom predictions of two million Americans dead from Covid-19. If we lock the country down, maybe only 240,000 will die he claimed. But even those numbers collapsed, with the new official prediction coming in under the normal flu numbers for 2018. Was it "social distancing" that saved us? Let's look at the states and countries that did not lock down - they should have massively higher deaths. Do they? Watch today's Liberty Report...
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If You Get Hit by a Car and Die, You May Be Recorded as a COVID-19 Death

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Tony Fauci's sidekick Deborah Birx stated on Tuesday at the White House press briefing that "if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death."

Here it is:
If she really means this, consider this situation: A person is tested for COVID-19 but is young and only has mild symptoms. He is told to go home and self-isolate for 14-days. The test results go on his medical record.

On the way home, he is hit by a car and rushed to the hospital in serious condition. He dies at the hospital. It appears as though Birx is stating that this would be recorded as a COVID-19 death.
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Coronavirus Shutdown: Unintended - And Intended - Consequences

Tennessee experienced more suicides last week than coronavirus deaths. Alcohol sales are skyrocketing. The nation seems gripped by fear. What are the unintended consequences of shutting the country down over Covid-19 fears...and how many of these consequences were actually intended? More surveillance? End of habeas corpus? Watch today's Liberty Report...
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Billionaire-backed Human Rights Watch lobbies for lethal US sanctions on leftist governments as the Covid crisis rages

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Human Rights Watch, the leading so-called rights organization in the United States, has actively lobbied for Washington to impose suffocating sanctions on leftist governments in Latin America. The group has even praised the Donald Trump administration for ramping up its aggressively destabilizing regime-change measures.

NGOs like Human Rights Watch (HRW) depict targeted sanctions as a more palatable alternative to military action, although these measures are widely recognized by international legal experts to be a form of economic warfare that have led to the deaths of many thousands of civilians, destroyed the livelihoods of countless people, and devastated entire nations’ economies.

As the coronavirus pandemic spread across the globe, HRW operatives took credit for new sanctions the Trump administration had imposed on Nicaragua’s democratically elected leftist government. Among those cheering on the escalation of economic warfare was HRW Australia development and outreach manager Stephanie McLennan, who chirped that the fresh round of sanctions were “great news!”
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Resistance Building To Coronavirus 'House Arrest' Orders...It's About Time!

Across the country, from political leaders, to small business owners, to parents who just want to take their children to the park, resistance is growing to the authoritarians who have effectively suspended the Constitution and placed most of the country under house arrest. Lawsuits are also challenging unlawful "stay at home" orders. What if all the hysteria-driven orders have actually made the virus outbreak even worse? More scientists are coming forward to argue for the "Sweden model" of moderation rather than lockdown. Watch today's Liberty Report:...
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