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The Failure of Imperial College Modeling Is Far Worse than We Knew

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A fascinating exchange played out in the UK’s House of Lords on June 2, 2020. Neil Ferguson, the physicist at Imperial College London who created the main epidemiology model behind the lockdowns, faced his first serious questioning about the predictive performance of his work.

Ferguson predicted catastrophic death tolls back on March 16, 2020 unless governments around the world adopted his preferred suite of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to ward off the pandemic. Most countries followed his advice, particularly after the United Kingdom and United States governments explicitly invoked his report as a justification for lockdowns. 

Ferguson’s team at Imperial would soon claim credit for saving millions of lives through these policies – a figure they arrived at through a ludicrously unscientific exercise where they purported to validate their model by using its own hypothetical projections as a counterfactual of what would happen without lockdowns. But the June hearing in Parliament drew attention to another real-world test of the Imperial team’s modeling, this one based on actual evidence.

As Europe descended into the first round of its now year-long experiment with shelter-in-place restrictions, Sweden famously shirked the strategy recommended by Ferguson. In doing so, they also created the conditions of a natural experiment to see how their coronavirus numbers performed against the epidemiology models. Although Ferguson originally limited his scope to the US and UK, a team of researchers at Uppsala University in Sweden borrowed his model and adapted it to their country with similarly catastrophic projections. If Sweden did not lock down by mid-April, the Uppsala team projected, the country would soon experience 96,000 coronavirus deaths.
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Norfolk Police Officer Fired For Making Anonymous Donation To Kyle Rittenhouse

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Sgt. William Kelly, the second highest-ranking official in the Norfolk Police Department’s internal affairs division, has been fired for making an anonymous donation to the defense fund for Kyle Rittenhouse. The donation (revealed after a security breach of the Christian crowdfunding site GiveSendGo was accompanied by a note saying that Rittenhouse did “nothing wrong.” Despite the obvious attack on free speech and associational rights, there has been little concern raised in the media or by legal experts.  Two days ago, a reporter in Utah went to the home of a paramedic to confront him on why he made a $10 donation of Rittenhouse, who is accused of killing two people during violent protests last summer in Wisconsin.

Kelly is an 18-year veteran of the department. He made an anonymous donation and was not publicly speaking as an officer.  He included a note “God bless. Thank you for your courage. Keep your head up. You’ve done nothing wrong.”

Norfolk City Manager Chip Filer said in a statement that Police Chief Larry Boon agreed the officer violated city and departmental policies against “egregious comments.”

Section 5.1 of the Norfolk Police Manual prohibits any conduct or comments, including off-duty, that would produce a “loss of respect” for the department or bring it into “disrespect.” It is the type of ambiguous standard that is anathema to free speech and associational rights.
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Careening Toward Catastrophe: Why Is Washington Pouring Gas On The Russia/Ukraine Fire?

Yesterday the Senate Foreign Relations approved a massive $300 million per year in military aid to Ukraine, even as the conflict in eastern Ukraine looks set to blow apart. The Biden Administration is packed with anti-Russia fanatical hawks. This week an apparent US-backed coup attempt on Russia's ally Belarus was broken up. Does Washington believe Russia will bend to its will? What's the next step? Former CIA officer Phil Giraldi joins today's Liberty Report with his analysis...
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Texas Ended Lockdowns and Mask Mandates. Now Locked-Down States Are Where Covid Is Growing Most

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Early last month, Texas governor Greg Abbott announced he would end the state’s mask mandate and allow most businesses to function at 100 percent capacity. The response from the corporate media and the Left was predictable. California governor Gavin Newsom declared the move “absolutely reckless.” Beto O’Rourke called the GOP a “cult of death.” Joe Biden called the move “Neanderthal thinking.”
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Who's to Blame for Normalizing One-Man Rule?

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Who’s to blame for normalizing one-man rule? If there is one thing the American system of government was designed to prevent, it is the tyranny that results when a single person, like a king, has the power to both write and enforce the law.
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The Terrorist Haven Fallacy on Afghanistan

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Interventionists are saying that US forces need to stay in Afghanistan because otherwise that country will, once again, become a “haven” for anti-American terrorists.

They still just don’t get it. It never ceases to amaze me how blind and obtuse interventionists can be.

Anti-American terrorism is not like the flu or like Covid-19. It doesn’t just spread around the world like an infection or a virus.

Moreover, the 9/11 attacks didn’t occur because the terrorists hated America for its “freedom and values.” They weren’t motivated by anger and rage over Elvis Presley or any other rock and roller. They weren’t motivated by hatred for Billy Graham or any other Christian evangelist.

The 9/11 attacks and all the other anti-American terrorist attacks were rooted in anger and hatred over US interventionism abroad, specifically in the Middle East. Interventionism is the cause of anti-American terrorism. That’s what interventionists still just don’t get.
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Media Lies Exposed: Officer Sicknick And The False 'Insurrection' Narrative

Yesterday's final report by Washington, DC's chief medical examiner that Capitol Hill Police Officer Brian Sicknick did not die from being beaten with a fire extinguisher - a claim echoed throughout the mainstream media - but rather died from "natural causes" the day after the January 6th melee at the Capitol has destroyed the MSM narrative that an armed and deadly insurrection had taken place. Will the media apologize for lying repeatedly for months? Will they be held to account for their lies? What is truth? Today on the Liberty Report...
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The Media Lied Repeatedly About Officer Brian Sicknick's Death. And They Just Got Caught.

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It was crucial for liberal sectors of the media to invent and disseminate a harrowing lie about how Officer Brian Sicknick died. That is because he is the only one they could claim was killed by pro-Trump protesters at the January 6 riot at the Capitol.

So The New York Times on January 8 published an emotionally gut-wrenching but complete fiction that never had any evidence — that Officer Sicknick's skull was savagely bashed in with a fire extinguisher by a pro-Trump mob until he died — and, just like the now-discredited Russian bounty story also unveiled by that same paper, cable outlets and other media platforms repeated this lie over and over in the most emotionally manipulative way possible.

As I detailed over and over when examining this story, there were so many reasons to doubt this storyline from the start. Nobody on the record claimed it happened. The autopsy found no blunt trauma to the head. Sicknick's own family kept urging the press to stop spreading this story because he called them the night of January 6 and told them he was fine — obviously inconsistent with the media's claim that he died by having his skull bashed in — and his own mother kept saying that she believed he died of a stroke.
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Maxine Waters: Inciting Actual Insurrection?

Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) was fond of accusing former President Trump of inciting insurrection with his speech on January 6th. However over the weekend Waters flew to Minneapolis and encouraged already violent street protesters to continue and even become "more confrontational if a jury does not hand down a murder charge against police officer Derek Chauvin who is accused of causing the death of George Floyd last May. Is this incitement to violence and possibly insurrection? Today on the Liberty Report...
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